Analysts Sour on Lotus’ Jazz Software Sales

Less-than-spectacular sales of Lotus Development’s Jazz computer software program have prompted several investment analysts to downgrade their Lotus earnings forecasts in the past few days. The stock promptly fell in heavy over-the-counter trading Monday.

The analysts said that Jazz, a long-delayed program that was supposed to boost sales of the Apple Macintosh personal computer to businesses, hasn’t yet done much for the Macintosh--and thus hasn’t sold very well itself. The market research firm Infocorp in Cupertino, Calif., said Macintosh sales climbed in June after the first copies of Jazz were shipped in late May, but then fell sharply in July.

“Expectations were too high that Jazz would be a stimulus to Macintosh sales,” said analyst Michele Preston of L. F. Rothschild, Unterberg, Towbin, a New York securities firm.

Rothschild reduced its 1985 earnings forecast for Lotus to $2.25 per share, or flat compared to last year, from earlier projections of $2.60. Similar cutbacks were reported at Goldman, Sachs & Co. and other investment houses.

Stock Price Dips

Trading in Lotus shares closed Monday at $18.50, down $1.25, on volume of 712,000 shares.

Officials of Cambridge, Mass.-based Lotus couldn’t be reached for comment. Apple declined comment except to assert that Macintosh sales improved in June and July, a claim that independent Infocorp disputes.

Analysts said it’s too early to make a final judgment about Jazz, which works only on the Macintosh. But some said the so-so sales to date underscore a continued weak reception for the Macintosh in the business community, despite the arrival of the long-awaited Lotus program.

Software analyst Robert Lefkowits of Infocorp noted that Jazz couldn’t be the sort of smash success for Lotus that its 1-2-3 spreadsheet program has been. That software, made for IBM and compatible computers, was the company’s first and made Lotus the leading independent software developer for personal computers. Only about 60%, or 300,000, of the Macintosh computers that will be in owners’ hands by year-end can use Jazz, compared to about 5 million IBM and other personal computers that can run Lotus 1-2-3.

Analyst Preston said she remains optimistic about Lotus’ long-term prospects. And Lefkowits noted that June’s shipment of about 35,000 copies of the program probably brought in $8 million in revenue, or nearly three times Jazz’s development costs.