Governor Bid May Leave Democrats Broke and Bloody

The first breezes of the 1990s are at their backs. History is calling their number. California Democrats haven’t been this well-positioned for years to compete for the governorship.

But, wouldn’t you know, they are tossing in their sleep these winter nights.

The worry: Their opportunity to seize the governor’s office next year is so compelling that the ablest Democrats will empty the bench for a nasty, mud-slinging primary election scuffle. Weakened, divided and flat broke, Democrats fear they will send the survivor limping into the general election to lose against a massively financed and unscarred Republican--say, an entrenched Republican like Sen. Pete Wilson.

Worry for Van de Kamp

Nobody stews more about this than Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp, the Democratic Establishment front-runner.

For going on two years, Van de Kamp has labored to create an image of invincibility and scare off Democratic challengers.

He has tried to prove that no other Democrat can raise as much money, has such a high office, such a familiar name or such a registry of influential supporters. Nobody else is a liberal, a manager and a crime fighter. Nobody has such a vast and experienced political operation.

These days leading up to the state Democratic party convention in Sacramento Feb. 10 will be important in measuring how successful Van de Kamp has been.

As the 52-year-old attorney general stands by, a threesome of potentially powerful Democratic opponents now test the waters and their own mettle to see which of them--maybe none, maybe all--will give chase.

In Southern California, Gray Davis, the state controller, former assemblyman and former chief of staff to ex-Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., has set a mid-February deadline for deciding whether to mount an all-out candidacy. Already, though, he shows himself willing to mix it up with Van de Kamp.

In Northern California, former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein continues methodically moving as if she is a candidate--most recently hiring an old and trusted political associate on a long-term contract to manage her fortunes. Her decision is forthcoming “the sooner the better,” according to an adviser.

Sets Deadline

And Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, a fellow San Franciscan, burns with ambition and the desire to come back from his painful 1988 defeat as the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. He just established a mid-February deadline for making up his mind whether to seek reelection or try for the governor’s office.

“I wouldn’t bet on John clearing out the field,” says Mickey Kantor, a Los Angeles attorney and an important Van de Kamp backer. “We’re an entrepreneurial party. We’re a bunch of small businesses, each with its own constituency.”

If the three plunge in with Van de Kamp, it will be the wildest Democratic gubernatorial primary in 15 years. That goes back to 1974 when Jerry Brown won the nomination against a strong field and then went on to win the governorship.

But in those days, there was no restriction on fund-raising. A candidate could emerge from a tough primary and count on wealthy supporters to produce large sums quickly for the June-to-November general election campaign. This time, candidates are under new voter-mandated limits--$1,000 in contributions per donor each fiscal year leading up to the election. Emerging from a costly primary with the ability to wage a strong finale will be vastly more difficult.

These June, 1988, ballot proposition “reforms,” in fact, are the reason for so much political activity this early. The general election won’t be held until November, 1990.

“Money is going to be in short supply for everyone,” explains Van de Kamp. “We cannot be bloodied (in a primary). We must be unified.”

History offers one other benchmark as the 1990 campaign begins. Going back for 35 years, independent-minded California voters alternated the governor’s office every two terms between the Democrats and the Republicans. By this reckoning, the next governor should be a Democrat.

Trying to keep this streak going into the 1990s, Democrats are testing not only each other right now but also some fresh themes.

Similar Themes

Indeed, Van de Kamp and Davis, who are farthest along in this endeavor, have independently given voice what might be called cautious, middle-class populism.

Says Van de Kamp: “My campaign is going to be about returning government to the people, for a change. Basically, state government has become quiescent--responsive to special interests and big business, some big business.”

Says Davis: “I want to speak out for those many hard-working Californians who can’t hire a lobbyist to speak for themselves. There are lots of people whose interests are not taken into account in Sacramento.”

To sell his message, Van de Kamp is assembling one of the most powerful teams of political experts in the history of the state. Robert Shrum and David Doak, two Washington consultants on strategy and advertising, are among the hottest hired guns in the business. Van de Kamp signed them after the pair flirted briefly with Feinstein. Pollster Paul Maslin is another hired hand of national standing. And Van de Kamp adds to that a home-grown operation under Barbara Johnson, his longtime adviser.

As attorney general and before that as Los Angeles County district attorney, Van de Kamp’s natural strength is his law enforcement record. A couple of controversial cases and decisions are likely to be debated down the road. But, in general, Van de Kamp is regarded as a more substantial law-and-order man than Democrats have been able to field in many years.

After a quiet beginning as attorney general in 1982, Van de Kamp in the last couple of years has become more energetic as an environmental and consumer advocate. He opposed the mergers of Los Angeles grocery chains and fought offshore oil drilling. He battled credit card interest rate increases. His press releases tout court appeals on behalf of civil rights cases, investigations of telemarketing fraud and support for legislation expanding financial liability for polluters.

Now Backs Nader Initiative

In the 1988 struggle over automobile insurance initiatives, Van de Kamp backed an unsuccessful package pushed by lawyers. But since then, he has enthusiastically advanced the legal case for Proposition 103, the successful Ralph Nader-backed initiative that calls for a 20% insurance rate rollback.

“He’s ideal. He may move a little slower than some people would like. But when he does move he has tremendous credibility,” said Harry Snyder, West Coast director of Consumers Union. “He moves deliberately, with lots of data. He doesn’t demagogue. And there’s no stopping him.”

Unlike Democrats of past campaigns, Van de Kamp is determined not to straddle the fence between business interests and other constituencies, even if it stirs open hostility in the business community. And it may.

“John moves very comfortably with a lot of business leaders, but there are several issues where he has taken some positions that have caused some fairly deep unhappiness,” said Ray Remy, president of the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.

Against that, Davis potentially brings a political drive and relentlessness of breathtaking dimension. It is both his asset and his burden. An opportunist, his detractors call him. Flexible, say his supporters.

“Gray is basically an activist--he looks at politics in its splashiest form. It’s exciting. There are a million things on the political menu. He has an ability to find those that people care about,” says Bob Hattoy, Southern California director of the Sierra Club.

“Gray is not afraid to be a little out in front. Most politicians are more comfortable back in the pack.”

Eager for Battle

Davis argues, naturally enough, that primary election competition is not all bad for the Democrats. And even at this early date, he shows willingness--if not downright eagerness--to mix it up freely with any comer.

“One of my concerns is that people are too quick to ally themselves with special interests,” he said in an interview. His target: Van de Kamp and the trial lawyers alliance in the 1988 automobile insurance battle.

Davis, alone among statewide officeholders, threw his support behind the successful Nader-sponsored proposition in the campaign.

“The trial lawyers and insurance companies are in the top five campaign contributors in this state,” Davis says. “I stood with Ralph Nader because I believed it was the best bargain.”

Likewise Davis credits himself with action when Van de Kamp stood on the sidelines in the fight against oil drilling on the Pacific Palisades seashore.

“I gave $900,000 to that campaign. I don’t just talk a good game, I’m a doer,” Davis said. For his transfer of money from his own treasury, Davis was featured in a television advertising blitz which attacked the oil-drilling plan.

Who among the Democrats enters the race--and who stays in--has come to hinge, in part, on political developments in the Republican field and on the uncertainly about forthcoming public opinion polls.

Earlier this month, when two-term incumbent Gov. George Deukmejian announced he wouldn’t seek a third term, Democrats were overjoyed. They thought the remaining field of GOP contenders was a pushover. “A Democrat was just elected governor!” gushed Democrat Conway Collis, a member of the state Board of Equalization. That whet the ambitions of anyone who ever looked in the mirror and saw a governor.

In the sober days since then, Democrats awakened to the fact that two of the GOP contenders might not be such pushovers after all. Commissioner of Baseball Peter V. Ueberroth, a Republican celebrity with a can-do reputation, sent out teasing signals that he might consider running if things looked good in a couple of months. And then, Pete Wilson told friends he has decided to return from Washington and run. He is the biggest GOP vote-getter of recent years and the man who clobbered McCarthy in the Senate election last November.

Long-shot Democrats suddenly are gripped by second thoughts. How would they fare against a strong GOP contender like Wilson? Would a brutal Democratic primary fight be worth the trouble? Feinstein, for instance, had previously shown a reluctance to take on Wilson, a man who had openly assisted her while she was mayor of San Francisco.

“Obviously, I’m very fond of Pete Wilson,” Feinstein says. “But I don’t think he has a monopoly on this. He chose to run for the Senate. I would hope he would stay there.”

Signal of Intent

Feinstein adds she is “very, very serious” about running for governor. She raided City Hall, hiring her friend, Deputy Mayor Hadley Roff, on a two-year contract as chief of staff. Roff is a rough-hewn politician, and his reunion with Feinstein is widely considered the most important signal yet of her seriousness to proceed as a candidate. Feinstein said she had no timetable for making a final decision. But she promised she will produce “a program of new solutions” for some of the state’s old problems if she stays in the race.

There is also the matter of upcoming public opinion polls on the Democratic field.

No major pollster has yet plumbed public feeling about this faraway race. When the first polls surface, what if Van de Kamp, the favorite of political insiders, shows up No. 2 or 3? Experts believe this is a good possibility, depending on how soon such a poll is taken.

“If you’re trying to show you are invincible and you don’t come in first, it strains your credibility,” says Kam Kuwata, a California political consultant who is advising Davis.

Some experts, like Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, believe that by virtue of name recognition from the 1988 campaign McCarthy would emerge at the top of such a poll. Moreover, Brown says McCarthy could probably “have the nomination for the asking.” But Brown, like many associates close to McCarthy, ultimately thinks he will choose to run for reelection as lieutenant governor.

“He has not eliminated it as an option. But the notion of turning around and raising millions of dollars after just going through the fund-raising mill is an enormous disincentive for him, I have to say,” a McCarthy adviser said.

Spokesman Stephen Hopcraft, however, expressed McCarthy’s situation this way: “Certainly he has ambitions greater than his current office. And we all feel he has talents greater than his current office. . . . I think he sees this as a time to make some serious decisions.”