Food Experts Disagree Over Whether Consumers Are Tightening Belts : Retailing: Pastas, soups and beer are considered classic recession-proof food items, but shoppers may forgo some frills during the downturn.

NEW YORK —  Americans might put off buying a new car or stereo until the economy improves, but will they shop differently at the supermarket?

Yes, no and maybe, food industry analysts say.

“Food in general is pretty recession-proof compared to durable goods. Even higher-priced items do well,” said Max Busetti, editor of the Food Industry Newsletter in Alexandria, Va. “People who want to treat themselves will buy Dove Bars and cut down on more expensive durable goods.”

Pastas, soups, cereals, potatoes and beer are considered classic recession-proof food items. To this list Busetti adds a ‘90s update: budget-priced convenience foods.

The past decade witnessed a surge in carry-out and convenience foods, and Busetti said there’s no going back to scratch.

“People don’t have time for scratch,” he said. “They will concentrate more on convenience products that will give them value.”

Busetti singled out gourmet-type frozen meals, which already are showing declining sales, as a product that would suffer.

“They’re going to stop buying Le Menu at $3.50 a pop and go back to Swansons. I expect they’ll go back to pot pie,” he said.

But John McMillin, food industry analyst with Prudential-Bache Securities in New York, predicted that people would not change their shopping habits appreciably.

“They’ll still buy Hellman’s instead of the store-brand mayonnaise if that’s what they like, except maybe they’ll cut coupons for it,” McMillin said.

The real savings will come from breaking the eating-out habit, he said.

“We spend 8% of our disposable income on food at home. We now spend almost that much on food away from home. . . . Unless we have a pretty severe recession, I think most people will cut corners by simply eating at home more,” he said.

That view was challenged by industry analyst Phil Lempert, of the Montclair, N.J.- based Lempert Report.

People won’t eat out less but will go to less expensive restaurants, he predicted. And folks definitely will bargain-hunt at the supermarket.

The three analysts did agree that value was the buzzword of the ‘90s.

During the mid-’70s downturn, gourmet items came into their own, Lempert said.

“People who couldn’t afford to buy a new car or refrigerator would buy fancy food for the image it presented--’If I can buy brie at $5 a pound, I can show my friends I’m still doing well.’ As a matter of fact, I’m not sure upscale items like brie would have made it without a recessionary period,” he said.

Health concerns--fat, salt, cholesterol--have turned shoppers into label readers, and they’ll use that skill to determine if a product offers value for the money, Lempert said.

When asked if his remark about splurging on Dove Bars applied to more extravagant purchases such as champagne or $30-a-pound chocolate truffles, Busetti said, “The mood is different. Even if they can afford it, people don’t want to present an extravagant image. They might still buy chocolate, but they might not buy Godiva chocolate.”

Not surprisingly, Godiva Chocolatier President Thomas Fey said his product would do well.

“I think chocolate in the past, and foods packaged as gift items in general, have proved fairly recession-proof,” he said. “Godiva is an affordable luxury. You can buy a half-pound for $15. You can’t buy too many luxury items for that price.”

Similarly, Ken Himmel, vice chairman of Sutton Place Gourmet Inc., stressed value in his company’s pricey goods. Sutton Place Gourmet, with offices in Rockville, Md., operates three fancy food stores in the Washington area.

“People are working harder and working longer because of the economy, which no longer provides time for eating out or preparing foods,” he said.

So the Thai shrimp and scallops at $15.98 a pound may sound steep, but it’s cheaper than eating in a restaurant, he said.

Hansen Caviar Co., in Englewood, N.J., was one of the few food purveyors to admit that retail sales were down from last year. But spokesman Richard Bernstein said overall sales were up because the company has expanded its mail-order and executive gifts departments.

“Hansen learned from the 1973 recession that customers reverted to entertaining at home,” a boon to the mail-order side, Bernstein said. People also are buying lesser grades of caviar, such as sevruga and osetra, instead of beluga, he said.

And then there’s a more prosaic foodstuff: soup.

David Hackney, a spokesman for Campbell’s Soup Co. in Camden, N.J., said soup is living up to its reputation as a food that does well during hard times.

In October, Campbell’s introduced 20-ounce cans of its most popular condensed soups that sell for 15% less than two 11 1/2 ounce cans.

The ‘80s trend toward single-serving sizes is out, although the portability of the company’s eight-ounce Microwave Soup “adds value to the product because someone can economize by taking it to the office and heating it up there rather than go out for lunch,” Hackney said.

“People seem to be moving back to what we call the center of the supermarket, buying more canned, packaged and dry goods, less stuff from the supermarket deli and bakery,” he said.

Does that mean a return to eating spaghetti in cans?

“God forbid,” said Lempert.