Auto Industry Likely to Cut Output in Early ’92 : * Manufacturing: Analysts expect extended U.S. plant shutdowns, even if they’re not as long as last year’s.

DETROIT —  Last winter, it was war that kept America’s auto factories off line for longer than usual. This year, it may be the recession.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Corp. have yet to announce their production plans for the first quarter of 1992. But industry observers are expecting extended shutdowns at the plants, even if they’re not as long as last year’s.

The Big Three are still suffering from the recession and a consumer malaise that’s paralyzed auto sales for more than a year. Big Three sales are down 14.4% so far this year, while sales of all North American-made cars and trucks are down 11.9%.

Last year, traditional two-week shutdowns for Christmas stretched into three to four weeks and longer at some plants because of tensions over Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

This year, fears about jobs and the general state of the economy could be responsible for extended breaks.

David Cole, director of the Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation at the University of Michigan, said he believes that January production schedules will be cut barring some significant move by Congress, such as a tax cut, that could spur more auto sales.

“If they made their decision now as to production cutbacks in the first of the year, I’d say they’re going to do it,” he said.

Ward’s Automotive Reports, which tracks vehicle production, also reported in its Nov. 25 edition that speculation in the industry is widespread that auto makers will make significant cuts in planned first-quarter production.

However, Ward’s editor, James W. Bush, said January production should be ahead of depressed levels a year ago.

Spokesmen at the Big Three declined to discuss their plans in detail.

“From what I have seen, it would appear we don’t have anything abnormal planned,” Chrysler spokesman Tom Houston said.

Some cars and trucks are selling. Plants that make GM’s import-fighting Saturn, the redesigned Cadillac Seville and Ford’s popular sport-utility Explorer are likely to schedule overtime because of good sales.

Overall, though, the annual vehicle sales rate for 1991 is expected to be the lowest since 1983.

“We’ve already been told we’re going to experience periodic layoffs in first quarter of 1992,” said Jim McNeil, president of United Auto Workers Local 600, which represents 2,000 employees at the Dearborn assembly plant, part of Ford’s sprawling Rouge Complex in Dearborn.

McNeil said the assembly line speed of Ford’s once-popular Mustang has been cut to 35 cars hourly from 46.

Earlier this week, GM said it would shut down plants in Van Nuys and Willow Run, Mich., until early January because of slow sales. Those plants make the Chevrolet Camaro, Pontiac Firebird and Chevrolet Caprice.

Ford and Chrysler also plan weeklong shutdowns at various plants. At the same time, all three auto makers are putting some plants on overtime to make more 1992 models in low supply, or, say analysts, to beef up inventories in case of shutdowns later on.

It makes sense for auto makers to slow production until manufacturing falls more in line with sales. That way the auto makers will reduce their costs until revenue perks up.

“In the old days--and I mean the old, old days--everybody seemed to have the feeling that everything was going to get better, so building up inventories was OK,” Cole said. “Today, they just don’t want that inventory in the field.”

The lack of sales has been devastating to the domestic auto makers’ bottom line. They have lost a combined $4.9 billion through the first nine months of the year and are on track for their worst financial year in history. Chrysler may report a slight profit in the fourth quarter, but GM and Ford are expected to post more losses.

The Big Three had a 68-day supply of cars and a 94-day supply of trucks at the end of the October, higher than the 65-day inventory that’s considered optimal.

Bush said November figures due next week probably will show increases in both categories.