Is This Summit Necessary?

Here’s a prediction that we hope proves to be wrong: The annual summit meeting of industrialized nations, which opens Wednesday in Tokyo, will be little more than a glorified photo opportunity.

Here’s why we hope such a prediction is wrong: Trade relations between the United States and Japan, on the one end, and between the United States and Europe, from the other direction, are not well. The Uruguay Round of GATT talks in Brussels has not resolved key issues, after many years of trying. The goal is to cut national tariffs, stimulate the Western economy and develop even greater economic cooperation. While an accord is still possible, it seems no closer than before.

And the recent bilateral talks in Tokyo between U.S. trade representatives and their Japanese counterparts appear to have ended in stalemate. These talks were thought to have a good chance of success--culminating in an agreement by the time President Clinton arrives in Tokyo for the G-7 summit next week. But the Japanese have been fiercely resisting American proposals to accept measurable ways of gauging their market openness. What the American team wants is a broad accord along the lines of the bilateral semiconductor deal between Washington and Tokyo that resulted in significant sales for U.S. products in that market. Although an agreement is not inconceivable, no one now believes that a deal can be fashioned in time for the Tokyo summit.

Nor is it likely that the summit itself will bridge these impasses. The general theory of summits is that agreements are 98% achieved beforehand by lower-level officials, with few major wrinkles to be ironed out. But neither the GATT nor Tokyo talks are that close to completion. While it’s possible the summit may narrow some gaps, it’s not likely. On the contrary, they might even widen.

The Clinton Administration, on the whole, has been rather testy toward Tokyo. And the Japanese response has been not to budge.

Will hearts on both sides melt under the pressurized environment of the G-7 get-together? It’s possible, but it’s also possible they’ll harden. As for GATT, this tortuous negotiation has been going on for seven years and has left practically everyone frustrated.

Under these circumstances, a strong argument could be made to call this summit off. It costs millions of dollars to stage, and in the middle of a worldwide recession it’s not seemly to waste money. But of course it will take place, because it is scheduled, because seven heads of state are committed, because politicians like to have their pictures taken. Maybe something very positive will come of it. Maybe we’re wrong. But we doubt it.