Secession Bad for Valley Blacks, Study Says

African Americans in the San Fernando Valley would lose political clout if the region seceded, while blacks in the remainder of Los Angeles would probably not gain influence at City Hall, according to a study commissioned by county Supervisor Yvonne Brathwaite Burke.

The study by UCLA urban planning professor Eugene Grigsby also found that the Valley and Los Angeles would face financial problems after a breakup, which could harm African Americans more than other residents.

“This report will be valuable because, among other things, I believe there was not enough study done on all the financial implications of a breakup,” Burke said Thursday. “A breakup of this magnitude has never been tried before anywhere.”

Grigsby and Burke will present a draft of the findings today in a closed-door meeting with African American leaders, including former Police Chief Bernard C. Parks, Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-Carson) and the Rev. Cecil Murray of the First AME Church.

Valley secessionists disputed many of Grigsby’s findings. They also said African Americans are not well served by City Hall.

The northeast Valley, where many African Americans live, “has been ignored by City Hall more than most communities,” said Richard Katz, co-chairman of the Valley Independence Committee. “They aren’t getting their fair share today.”

The study examined financial and demographic material from the city, the Census Bureau and the Local Agency Formation Commission, the panel that analyzed the secession proposal and placed it on the Nov. 5 ballot. Grigsby did not look at the effect of Hollywood secession, which is also on the ballot.

The professor said he found that African Americans in the Valley would not likely be a major force in any of the 14 proposed city council districts because they would make up just 4.5% of the population.

“There will be virtually no possibility of having political influence,” Grigsby said.

In the remainder of Los Angeles, Grigsby found, the African American population would increase from 11.1% to 14.9%. But because so many blacks live in South Los Angeles, where there have been big increases in the Latino population, it is “questionable” whether the influence of African Americans in downtown politics would grow, he said.

“Just because their proportion goes up, the area they reside in doesn’t change,” Grigsby said.

African Americans now represent three of the 15 Los Angeles City Council districts, but have significant voter strength in just two of those. Grigsby said secession would probably not result in a third district where blacks are the largest voting bloc.

Katz disagreed. He said the study underestimated the relatively high voter registration rates of African Americans.

Katz also rejected Grigsby’s finding that Los Angeles would be forced to reduce services after secession, and that the cuts would hurt blacks disproportionately because they make up a large percentage of the city’s work force.

In addition, Grigsby said secession would weaken Los Angeles’ ability to secure federal and state money for social services, because the city would no longer be the nation’s second-largest. Katz disputed that claim as well.