A Word of Advice for Davis About Running for President: Don’t

Governor, don’t even think about it. Don’t waste one moment daydreaming about running for president.

Close the door. Shut it out.

At least for 2004 -- tempting though it might be, now that Democrats have tanked nationally.

Actually, I’d argue that despite Gov. Gray Davis’ narrower-than-projected reelection victory (5 points), his presidential prospects improved Tuesday. That’s because fewer Democrats were left standing and some of those still erect are wobbling.

Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) no longer will be the Senate majority leader. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) failed again to lead Democrats into a House majority.

Georgia’s Democratic governor, Roy Barnes, had White House ambitions, but he was kicked out of office.

New York, Florida, Texas all have Republican governors. Michigan elected a rising star Democrat, Jennifer Granholm, but she was born in Canada and is ineligible for the White House. Illinois will have a new Democratic governor with a tongue-twisting name: Blagojevich.

The Sunday national talk shows will be calling on California’s governor to speak for Democrats across America. After all, he and his ticket survived the national Republican onslaught. Tell us, governor, what is your secret for Democratic victory?

The answer Davis cannot give: Work night and day hitting up special interests for a record $70 million. Use the money to destroy your strongest potential opponent and secure the GOP nomination for the weakest gubernatorial candidate ever. Then bludgeon him.

But, of course, as long as the GOP keeps fielding candidates who oppose abortion rights, gun control and environmental protections, the party’s going to be spitting in the eye of moderate swing voters.

Are these merely California issues, or can they be used as Democratic weapons nationally? Davis ad-maker David Doak thinks they can be and Democratic candidates have been foolish not to try.

“We should run affirmatively on social issues -- ‘choice,’ the environment, being worker-friendly. Gun control. We need to polarize issues more and not be afraid to stand for something.”

That describes Davis, at least on these litmus-test issues. After Tuesday, Doak predicts national politicos “will be knocking on his door.”

Don’t open it, governor.

Don’t be seduced by the siren song that landed predecessors Pete Wilson and Jerry Brown -- your old boss -- on the political rocks.

Ask Wilson: The job of California governor is too big and the distance too great between Sacramento and New Hampshire. “It’s very difficult to do the [governor’s] job and adequately campaign,” he lamented to me after his 1995 misadventure.

It’s ego-gratifying and stature-building to be blessed by the Great Mentioner as a potential presidential or even veep candidate.

But here’s the history: No sitting California governor ever has been nominated, let alone been elected president. Two have been nominated for vice president; neither elected. (The legendary Earl Warren, as a running mate, couldn’t even carry the state for Tom Dewey.)

More importantly, California voters don’t take kindly to offering an unpopular governor -- Wilson or Davis -- a second chance, only to watch him bolt for New Hampshire shortly after his inauguration.

Davis is not dumb. He watched Brown and Wilson be humiliated. Although he won’t say “never” -- as Wilson foolishly did -- this governor does not seem to be tempted.

“Gray and I have never had a conversation about the presidency in the nine years I’ve been with him,” reports chief strategist Garry South.

“All I’m going to say,” Davis told me Wednesday, “is I have one goal, which is to leave California a better place. You know how much work that’s going to take. I’m devoting my energies to that. I’m not fueling any speculation.... “

At a news conference, however, Davis emphasized points that could strengthen his national resume: “It’s not easy to stand up against a national [Republican] tide.”

“In California, the Democratic Party stands for something. We’re leading America in many areas. In stem cell research. Paid family leave. Combating global warming. Sensible gun laws....

“California has returned to its natural role as a national leader.”

Davis, however, must return to popularity before he can run again for anything.

The Times exit poll found that 60% of voters had an unfavorable impression of him; 61% disapproved of his job performance.

Davis clearly needs to rehabilitate himself with voters. By governing effectively.

Tackle the dogged budget deficit head-on. Be bold. Don’t flinch from tax increases and deep cuts. That’s unpopular, but real leadership.

Don’t even think Oval Office. Well, if you’re rehabilitating yourself, governor, maybe it’s OK to daydream about 2008.