How a rash of GOP retirements may portend a Democratic wave in November

They’re headed for the exits in Congress, more than 60 lawmakers in all, deciding they’ve had enough and opting to quit rather than run again in November.

Some — like Minnesota's Democratic Sen. Al Franken, Michigan's Democratic Rep. John Conyers Jr. and Arizona's Republican Rep. Trent Franks — were chased out by sexual harassment charges.

Others, like GOP Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, wished to spare themselves what looked to be uphill reelection fights.

Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said he wants to spend more time with his family, though leaving frees him of the constant tension between warring GOP factions and the stresses of dealing with an unpredictable president.

Many more are leaving the House to advance their careers, running for Senate or seeking the governor’s office back home.

Historically, it’s proved easier to win an open seat than oust an incumbent, which heartens Democrats vying to seize control of the House. Faced with a modern-day record for retirements, Republicans will be defending far more open seats in November than Democrats, who need a gain of 23 to take over.

The GOP is in better shape in the Senate, where Democrats need to pick up just two seats for control, but have many more vulnerable incumbents to defend.

Despite Democratic optimism, however, there is no clear correlation between congressional retirements and a so-called wave election.

The departure of 63 lawmakers is the most since 1994, which was a tsunami of a midterm election. The GOP gained 60 congressional seats at that midpoint of the Clinton administration, including 54 in the House, thus ending Democrats’ decades-long hold on the chamber.

The second-highest number of retirements came in 2010, another wave year, when Republicans won nearly 70 seats to seize control of the House under President Obama and made big gains in the Senate.

But there was also a significant number of retirements in 2002, when the GOP picked up seats under President George W. Bush. In that election, with the trauma surrounding the Sept. 11 attacks still fresh, Republicans broke the longtime pattern of midterm losses for the party in the White House.

It won’t be clear until Nov. 6 whether this congressional exodus signals a wave, or merely the fact that dozens of Washington lawmakers decided life was better elsewhere.