Dodgers Dugout: Are the Dodgers a good clutch-hitting team? Look at the numbers
Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and it seems somehow appropriate that the final KTLA game of the season gets rained out.
Clutch
For a couple of years now, the Dodgers have had the reputation of not getting key hits in the clutch. Losing in the playoffs for four straight seasons hasn’t helped that reputation at all. But is it true?
Let’s take a look at two key clutch stats and see how the Dodgers fare.
First is two out with runners in scoring position. If you want to drive in the runner in that situation, you have to get a hit. So how have the Dodgers fared compared to the rest of the NL in this category since 2013?
2013
NL average: .226
Dodgers: .247 (second in NL)
Top five Dodgers (minimum 25 plate appearances):
Adrian Gonzalez, .356
Juan Uribe, .324
Carl Crawford, .321
Jerry Hairston Jr., .321
Matt Kemp, .300
Bottom five (min. 25 plate appearances):
Nick Punto, .138
Andre Ethier, .186
A.J. Ellis, .228
Hanley Ramirez, .259
Mark Ellis, .260
2014
NL average: .222
Dodgers: .251 (third in NL)
Top five Dodgers (min. 25 plate appearances):
Hanley Ramirez, .348
Dee Gordon, .310
Miguel Rojas, .292
Matt Kemp, .282
Andre Ethier, .271
Bottom five (min. 25 plate appearances):
A.J. Ellis, .192
Carl Crawford, .194
Drew Butera, .200
Yasiel Puig, .220
Adrian Gonzalez, .229
2015
NL average: .230
Dodgers: .215 (11th in NL)
Top five Dodgers (min. 25 plate appearances):
Alex Guerrero, .321
Howie Kendrick, .267
Justin Turner, .262
Adrian Gonzalez, .245
Yasmani Grandal, .206
Bottom five (min. 25 plate appearances):
Jimmy Rollins, .131
A.J. Ellis, .143
Andre Ethier, .163
Yasiel Puig, .167
Joc Pederson, .196
2016
NL average: .228
Dodgers: .206 (14th in NL)
Top five Dodgers (min. 25 plate appearances):
Justin Turner, .289
Chase Utley, .268
Adrian Gonzalez, .255
Corey Seager, .207
Joc Pederson, .191
Bottom five (min. 25 plate appearances):
Trayce Thompson, .107
Howie Kendrick, .167
Enrique Hernandez, .167
Yasiel Puig, .182
Yasmani Grandal, .190
2017
NL average: .249
Dodgers: .256 (seventh in NL)
Top five Dodgers (min. 5 plate appearances):
Chris Taylor, .667
Joc Pederson, .429
Cody Bellinger, .400
Yasiel Puig, .375
Adrian Gonzalez, .350
Bottom five (min. 5 plate appearances):
Chase Utley, .000
Yasmani Grandal, .125
Enrique Hernandez, .167
Andrew Toles, .222
Corey Seager, .222
Next, for you non-traditionalists out there, let’s look at a relatively new clutch stat, WPA Clutch, or on some sites just Clutch. This stat gives a player a rating on how much better or worse he does in high-leverage situations. It also compares the player against himself, so, if a player hits .320 during the season and hits .320 in clutch situations, he doesn’t get any extra credit for it. But if he hits .220 during the season and .320 in clutch situations, his clutch rating will improve. Here is a more detailed explanation. Is it a perfect stat? No, but there are no perfect stats. It is just one more tool in the drawer we can use to evaluate players.
For this stat, if you are above zero you are considered above average in clutch situations. Below zero and you are below average. Anything above 1.0 means you are one of the best clutch hitters around.
From 2014 to 2017 combined, only 18 players have a Clutch rating of 2.0 or above: Mitch Moreland, Matt Carpenter, Freddy Galvis, Matt Wieters, John Jaso, Johnny Giavotella, Omar Infante, Jose Reyes, Justin Morneau, Howie Kendrick, Angel Pagan, Daniel Descalso, Kole Calhoun, Adam Eaton, Adonis Garcia, Mike Trout, Matt Holliday and Coco Crisp.
There are 31 players with a Clutch score of -2.0 or worse. Seven are at -3.0 or worse. They are: Edwin Encarnacion, Nelson Cruz, Gerardo Parra, Adam Jones, Mike Napoli, J.D. Martinez and Mark Trumbo.
Here is the Clutch Rating for key Dodgers from 2014-now. Remember, anything above zero means you are an above average clutch hitter. Above 1.0 means you are a great clutch hitter:
Adrian Gonzalez, 1.6
Andre Ethier, 1.2
Enrique Hernandez, 0.9
Chase Utley, 0.8
Justin Turner, 0.3
Scott Van Slyke, 0.3
Andrew Toles, 0.1
Chris Taylor, 0.1
Franklin Gutierrez, 0.1
Logan Forsythe, 0.0
Yasmani Grandal, -0.5
Corey Seager, -0.5
Yasiel Puig, -2.6
Joc Pederson, -2.8
The big takeaway is just how bad Puig and Pederson have been in the clutch. And we can see why Gonzalez gets 90 RBIs every year and why Ethier has the reputation of being a great clutch hitter.
The Dodgers have indeed been a below-average clutch team the last couple of seasons, but are doing better this season. Let’s hope that continues.
There are other clutch situation stats we can look at, but they would show pretty much the same thing, and I can hear some readers’ eyes glazing over now. So let’s stop. We’ll revisit this again later this season.
Cody Bellinger
All Cody Bellinger has done in his first 11 games is hit .375 with five homers, a double and a triple. He has inserted himself into the Rookie of the Year competition, and some people have started calling him Super Cody. So why didn’t I lead this newsletter with how great he is doing?
I don’t want to jinx it. Will he be the next great Dodger or the next Hurricane Hazle? I don’t know. But I am enjoying the ride and don’t want to tempt the baseball gods by going overboard.
But gee, is he fun to watch.
The obscure Dodgers record of the week
Since they first started tracking them in 1933, which non-pitcher with at least 1,000 plate appearances has the Dodgers record for fewest double plays grounded into?
Dave Roberts, who grounded into only three. Wonder what ever happened to him?
Next on the list is Dee Gordon with nine, followed by Joc Pederson with 11. The rest of the top 10: Goody Rosen(12), Buzz Boyle (13), Carl Crawford (15), Jim Wynn (15), Juan Samuel (16), Rick Monday (16) andKirk Gibson (17).
Carl Furillo grounded into the most, with 207.
The Rich Hill blister joke of the week
He was getting ready to make a start in the minors, but got a blister when his fingers touched his uniform while putting his hand over his heart for the national anthem.
Next series
Monday, 7 p.m., Pittsburgh (Trevor Williams) at Dodgers (Alex Wood)
Tuesday, 7 p.m., Pittsburgh (Ivan Nova) at Dodgers (Julio Urias)
Wednesday, 7 p.m., Pittsburgh (Chad Kuhl) at Dodgers (Kenta Maeda)
Note: Starters are subject to change.
KTLA games
The last KTLA game of the season was rained out Sunday. However, KTLA and Spectrum SportsNet officials are expected to meet this week and pick a replacement game. Just a thought, how about 130 replacement games?
And finally
The Dodgers will give more playing time to Chris Taylor until Logan Forsythe returns. Read all about it here.
Have a comment or something you’d like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me and follow me on Twitter: @latimeshouston.
Twitter: @latimeshouston
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